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Archive for September, 2019

Day #42 : Conditional Probability – 365 DoA

Conditional probability pdf plot

How does this not exist on the internet?! This is directly from my book, so it looks a little… well loved.

Up to now we’ve been dealing with single variable pdf and the corresponding CDF. We said that these probabilities relied on the fact that our variable of interest was independent. However, what if we knew some property that impacted our probability? Today we are talking conditional probability and that is the question we will be answering. It’s going to be a long, long post so plan accordingly.*

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Day #41 : Connecting the Concepts – 365 DoA

catinthebag

Maybe we shouldn’t phrase it this way, since there is still quite a few days left of 365DoA, but you made it to the end! No, not THE end, but if you’ve been following along the past few posts we’ve introduced several seemingly disparate concepts and said, “don’t worry they are related,” without telling you how. Well today, like a magician showing you how to pull a rabbit from a hat, let’s connect the dots and explain why we introduced all those concepts!*

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Day #40 : The Normal Approximation (Poisson) – 365 DoA

Poisson vs Gaussian

Poisson’s return!

You have all been really patient with seeing how we tie these last few posts together and frankly I think that we are on track to do that in the next post. Today however we have one more thing to introduce then we can bring it all together, that would be yet another normal (again we usually refer to this as the gaussian) distribution. If you recall I hinted at this a few days ago in the Poisson pdf post.  Let’s look at what this means and why we would want to use this.*

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Day #39 : The Normal Approximation (De Moivre-Laplace) – 365 DoA

Binomial_distribution plot

The binomial distribution, don’t worry we’ll get into it.

Well we haven’t covered the binomial distribution, but it should be vaguely familiar if you’ve been keeping up, specifically if you’ve already read about the gaussian pdf. Today we are going to talk about what the binomial distribution is and how it relates to the normal distribution. So let’s get into it and see how it relates to some of the topics we’ve been covering!*

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Day #38 : The Poisson Distribution – 365 DoA

poisson

The Poisson distribution changes shape as λ changes

Well in an effort to catch up to what we’re currently learning in my class today we should hammer out the Poisson distribution so we can get to combining some ideas. The interesting thing about this distribution as you can see from above, is that as we adjust λ the shape of the distribution changes. Let’s get started.*

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Day #37 : Bayes’ Theorem – 365 DoA

bayes light

We’re talking Bayes for days.

Okay, it looks like we have our topics for the next few posts and today we need to introduce something called Bayes’ rule (or theorem) if we are going to get into some of the things I want to talk about. We also need to talk about the Poisson distribution eventually, but we’ll get to that in time. For now, let’s talk Bayes!*

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Day #36 : The uniform pdf – 365 DoA

Uniform distribution

The uniform distribution, a very simple looking distribution indeed.

Today we are going to take it a bit easy, after all we still have 329 days of blog posts and not every one has to be a novel. That is why today we are introducing something called the uniform distribution. Ever wonder what would happen if nothing really mattered? Well you’re in for a treat! Let’s get started.*

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Day #35 : Example of the Gaussian pdf – 365 DoA

Normal distribution with marbles

The gaussian (or normal) distribution demonstrated by plinko.

Well what a fun day it is! Today we are going to dive into some examples (or maybe just an example) of the gaussian (also known as the normal) distribution. Last post we looked at the laplace distribution and discovered there aren’t a whole lot of uses for it because it is technically a special case of the exponential distribution. This isn’t the case with the gaussian, there are lots of really interesting things we can model using the distribution that are applicable to everyday life, so let’s get started!*

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Day #34 : Example of the Laplace pdf – 365 DoA

laplace pdf and CDF

The Laplace pdf (left) and the associated Laplace CDF (right). Remember the CDF is just the area under the curve of the pdf.

Last post, we finally got to use the exponential pdf and discovered the math wasn’t completely useless (okay, hopefully by now you know that). However, in the spirit of finding a use for the equations we are covering, let’s look at how we use the laplace pdf. It’s going to be a blast, so let’s get started!

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Day #33 : Example of the Exponential pdf – 365 DoA

exponential probabilty density function example post

For those who need a refresher, this is a plot of the exponential pdf we are working with today.

Over the past couple of days, I’ve been talking about several different types of pdf and the associated C.D.F. Hopefully, we have a clear understanding of each of those concepts, for those of you scratching your head, I would recommend you start here at this other post. Otherwise, let’s (finally) look at a real life example using the exponential pdf!*

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Day #32 : The Laplace p.d.f. – 365 DoA

laplace plot

The laplace p.d.f with a θ = 0.

Well here we are again… maybe unless you’re new, in which case welcome. If you are just joining us we are talking p.d.f. no not the file format, the probability density function version. If you’re new, you may want to start back here(ish) If not, then let’s talk the strangely similar laplace distribution.*

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Day #31 : The Exponential p.d.f. – 365 DoA

Exponential_probability_density

Today we are talking this guy! The exponential p.d.f and its C.D.F.

Well, it has been a week, don’t even get me started. But if you’re here you don’t want to hear me complain about my week, that isn’t why we come together! Well today let’s do a bit of a dive into the exponential p.d.f. I hope you’ve brushed up, because this is going to get interesting.*

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Day #30 : Confidence Interval – 365 DoA

Confidence intervals

Yep, we’re talking confidence!

Day 30 already! Where does the time go? It feels like we just started this whole project and it probably wouldn’t be a good idea to look at the remaining time to completion, so let’s not and just enjoy the nice round 30. We will get back to our p.d.f another day, but today is going to be short. That’s what I usually say before typing out 10 pages worth of information so to avoid that, let’s touch on something important, but something I can do briefly. Today we’re talking about confidence intervals*

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Day #29 : Probability density functions, Part 3 – 365 DoA

gaussian CDF vs pdf

Don’t be scared, we’re going to tackle this guy today!

Well, apparently you guys really appreciated my probability density function posts. It’s good to see people interested in something a little less well-known (at least to me). So for those of you just joining us, you’ll want to start at part 1 here. For those of you who are keeping up with the posts, let’s review and then look at specific functions. Namely let’s start by going back to our gaussian distribution function and talk about what’s going on with that whole mess. It will be fun, so let’s do it!*

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Day #28 : Cumulative Distribution Functions – 365 DoA

Exponential_distribution_cdf

An example C.D.F. of an exponential distribution

Today we were going to do another deep dive into the p.d.f and C.D.F. relationship. Specifically today we were going to talk about specific p.d.f. functions and why we use them, however… I am not doing so hot today, so instead we are going to back track just a bit and talk about what how a C.D.F. differs from our p.d.f. even though we kind of covered it, it would be nice to be clear and I can do this in a (fairly) short post for the day. So that said, let’s get started and we will pick up our p.d.f. discussion next time (maybe).*

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Day #27 : Probability density functions, Part 2 – 365 DoA

PDF_CDF

Today we are looking at our p.d.f. (yes this image has p.d.f. written as PDF, please don’t be confused!) and our C.D.F.’s let’s do this!

Oh hi didn’t see you there. Today is part 2 of the probability density functions notes (posts?), whatever we are calling these. You can read part 1 here as you should probably be familiar with the (super confusing) notation we use to describe our p.d.f. and our C.D.F. now that we’ve given that lovely disclaimer, let’s look once again at probability density functions!*

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Day #26 : Probability density functions, Part 1 – 365 DoA

statisics jokes

Dashing dreams one comic at a time, via Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal 

We are well on our way to wrapping up week 4, what a ride it’s been! It’s been a long day for me, so today might be short. However, I really, really, really want to break into probability density functions. This topic is going to be a bit more advanced than some of the things we’ve covered (IE more writing) so it will most definitely be broken up. Let’s look at why and discover the wonderful weirdness of probability density functions!*

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Day #25 : The p-value – 365 DoA

P-value joke showing a very confident man with this is what p less than .05 feels like printed on top of the image
P-value joke showing a very confident man with this is what p less than .05 feels like printed on top of the image

It’s true!

Now it seems like we are getting somewhere. Last post we covered z-score and you can read that if you haven’t already, it might be good to familiarize yourself with it since today we are going to talk p-value and the difference between z-score and p-value. That said, let’s dive in and look at the value in the p-value.*

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Day #24 : The z-score – 365 DoA

Statistics cartoon

Statistics cartoon

So if you recall from last post… well I’m not linking to it. It was hellishly personal and frankly I’m still attempting to recover from it. We’re going to take it light this time and we can do a deep dive into something in another post. For that reason, let’s talk about z-score and what exactly it is, I mean we used it in this post and never defined it formally, so let’s do that. Let’s talk z-score!*

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Day #23 : I was lucky… – 365 DoA

IMG_20130704_221101_377 (2)

This was home, for a while anyway.

Okay, so not every post has to be strictly academic. If my twitter feed is any indication yesterday was world suicide prevention day. So with a heavy heart I have not one, but two very personal stories regarding suicide. Obviously this is a content warning for those wanting to go further, we will be dealing with suicide, death, and suicidal ideation.

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Day #22 : Parametric vs. NonParametric Statistics – 365 DoA

How Mean Meme

Technically we could call this parametric statistics part 2. However, since we are covering nonparametric statistics and more importantly the difference between parametric and nonparametric statistics, it would seem that this title makes more sense. As usual with a continuation, you probably want to start at the beginning where we define parametric statistics. Ready to get started?*

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Day #21 : Defining Parametric Statistics – 365 DoA

normal-distribution

It’s halloween time, we are talking about normally distributed data, so this fits, and I don’t want to hear otherwise!

Well my lovely readers, we’ve made it to the three week mark, 5.7% of the way through! Okay maybe that doesn’t seem like a big deal written like that, but hey it’s progress. So last post we had our independence day, or rather defined what it meant to have independent events vs. dependent events. We also said it was an important assumption in parametric statistics that our events are independent, but then we realized we never defined what parametric statistics even is, oops. So let’s stop dragging our feet and talk parametric statistics!*

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Day #20 : Independent Events – 365 DoA

correlation

By: xkcd

 

Because we introduced the central limit theorem last post, it’s time to introduce another important concept. The idea of independent events, while this may seem intuitive, it is one of the assumptions we make in parametric statistics, another concept we will define, but for now let’s jump into independence.*

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Day #19 : The Central Limit theorem – 365 DoA

 

 

CLT

Well here we are again, if you recall from our last post, we talked Bonferroni Correction. You may also recall that when the post concluded, there was no real topic for today. Well after some ruminating, before we jump into more statistics, we should talk about the central limit theorem. So let’s do a quick dive into what that is and why you should know it!*

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Day #18 : The Bonferroni Correction – 365 DoA

Keep calm and do the Bonferroni corrrection

Keep calm and do the Bonferroni corrrection

By now we are masters of statistics… right? Okay, not really, but we are getting there. So far we’ve covered two types of errors, type 1 which you can read about here, and type 2 which you can read about here. Armed with this new knowledge we can break into a way to correct for type 1 errors that come about from multiple comparisons. Sound confusing? Well, not for long, let’s break it down and talk Bonferroni.*

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Day #17 : Type 2 errors – 365 DoA

 

cat asleep

Last post we did a quick bit on type 1 errors. As with anything, there is more than one way to make an error. Today we are talking type 2 errors! They are related in the sense and we’ll go over what that means and compare the two right… now!*

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Day #16 : Type 1 errors – 365 DoA

tiny dog yawning

tiny dog yawning

We did it, we cracked the coin conundrum! We managed the money mystery! We checked the change charade! We … well you get the idea. Last post we (finally) determined if our coin was bias or not. Don’t worry, I won’t spoil it for you if you haven’t read it yet. I actually enjoyed working through a completely made up problem, so if you haven’t read it, you really should. Today we’re going to talk dogs, you’ll see what I mean, so let’s dive in.*

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Day #15 : Significance, Part 3 – 365 DoA

Standard_deviation

Where does our observation fall on the probability density function?

It looks like we’ve arrived at part 3 of what is now officially a trilogy of posts on statistical significance. There is so much more to say I don’t want to quite call this the conclusion. Instead, let’s give a quick review of where we left off and we can get back to determining if an observed value is significant.*

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Day #14 : Significance, Part 2 – 365 DoA

Bar graph showing z score across trials
Bar graph showing z score across trials

Z-score bar graph that I made just for all of you using some data I had laying around. If you’re new to statistics it may not make sense, but rest assured we will make sense of it all!

Well here we are two weeks into 365DoA, I was excited until I realized that puts us at 3.8356% of the way done. So if you remember from last post we’ve started our significance talk, as in what does it mean to have a value that is significant, what does that mean exactly, and how to do we find out? Today is the day I finally break, we’re going to have to do some math. Despite my best efforts I don’t think we can finish the significance discussion without it and still manage to make sense. With that, let’s just dive in.*

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Day #13 : Significance, Part 1 – 365 DoA

Normally distributed data shown using a histogram plot
Normally distributed data shown using a histogram plot

Histogram of normally distributed data. It looks very… nomal. No it really is normally distributed, read on to find out what that means and how we can use it.

If you’ve read my last post I hinted that today we would discuss filtering. Instead I think I want to take this a different direction. That isn’t to say we won’t go over filtering, we most definitely will. Today I want to cover something else though, significance. So you’ve recorded your signal, took an ensemble average, and now how do we tell if it actually means something, or if you are looking at an artificial or arbitrary separation in your data (IE two separate conditions lead to no difference in your data). Let’s look at significance.*

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